Secular changes in mid-adulthood body mass index, waist circumference, and low HDL cholesterol between 1990, 2003, and 2018 in Great Britain
JohnsonWill
NorrisTom
HamerMark
2020
Methods: The sample comprised 19,406 adults (aged 43-47 years) from three birth cohort studies with BMI and WC measured in 1990, 2003, or 2018; 13,239 participants additionally had HDL-C measured in 2003 or 2018. Quantile regression was used to model differences between 1990-2003 and 2003-2018 in 1) BMI and WC internal Z-scores and 2) WC in cm before and after adjustment for BMI. Binary logistic regression was used to model differences between 2003-2018 in low HDL-C, before and after adjustment for BMI or WC.<br>Results: Secular increases in BMI and WC were larger between 1990-2003 than 2003-2018
and at the upper ends of the distributions. At the 85th quantile, effect sizes were larger for WC than BMI Z-scores in females but not males. Adjustment for BMI attenuated estimates of secular increases in WC in cm more in males than females. Odds ratios for low HDL-C in 2018 compared to 2003 were 1.73 (95% CI 1.32, 2.28) in males and 1.34 (1.01, 1.78) in females. Adjustment for WC did not substantially change the estimate in males but attenuated the estimate for females to 1.09 (0.81, 1.47). <br>Conclusions: In women much more so than in men, secular increases in mid-adulthood WC appear to have occurred independently of BMI and largely explain the observed rise in low HDL-C prevalence between 2003-2018.