2134/14271
Thomas House
Thomas
House
Joshua V. Ross
Joshua V.
Ross
David Sirl
David
Sirl
How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation
Loughborough University
2014
Epidemiology
Infectious disease
Markov chain
Susceptible-infectious-recovered(s)
Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified
2014-03-07 15:34:30
Journal contribution
https://repository.lboro.ac.uk/articles/journal_contribution/How_big_is_an_outbreak_likely_to_be_Methods_for_epidemic_final-size_calculation/9387842
Epidemic models have become a routinely used
tool to inform policy on infectious disease. A
particular interest at the moment is the use of
computationally intensive inference to parametrize
these models. In this context, numerical efficiency
is critically important. We consider methods for
evaluating the probability mass function of the total
number of infections over the course of a stochastic
epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite
populations, but also considering heterogeneous and
large populations. Relevant methods are reviewed
critically, with existing and novel extensions also
presented. We provide code in MATLAB and a
systematic comparison of numerical efficiency.