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Henriette Engelhardt
Henriette
Engelhardt
Tomas Koegel
Tomas
Koegel
Alexia Prskawetz
Alexia
Prskawetz
Fertility and women’s employment reconsidered: a macro-level time series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000
Loughborough University
2005
fertility
female employment
time-series analysis
vector error correction models
Granger causality
Economics not elsewhere classified
2005-07-28 08:55:06
Journal contribution
https://repository.lboro.ac.uk/articles/journal_contribution/Fertility_and_women_s_employment_reconsidered_a_macro-level_time_series_analysis_for_developed_countries_1960-2000/9493958
This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship
between fertility and women’s employment. This is done by a cross-national comparison
of macro-level time series data from 1960–2000 for France, West Germany, Italy,
Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a
combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time series techniques)
we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous
movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social
norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of
contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid–1970s
and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent
with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the
institutional context, such as childcare availability and attitudes towards working
mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the
employment of women.