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A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

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journal contribution
posted on 2015-05-26, 10:12 authored by Daniel Irvine, Lucy Budd, David Pitfield
The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

JOURNAL OF AIR TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT

Volume

42

Pages

1 - 9 (9)

Citation

IRVINE, D., BUDD, L.C.S. and PITFIELD, D.E., 2015. A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London. Journal of Air Transport Management, 42, pp. 1 - 9.

Publisher

© Elsevier Ltd.

Version

  • SMUR (Submitted Manuscript Under Review)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2015

Notes

This is a pre-print of an article that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Air Transport Management [© Elsevier]. The definitive version is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.06.005

ISSN

0969-6997

Language

  • en

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