Dixon Wilby RRA-19-0141 R2.pdf (3.6 MB)
A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia
journal contribution
posted on 2019-08-06, 07:58 authored by Samuel G Dixon, Robert WilbyRobert WilbyThis study develops a procedure for seasonal forecasting river discharge from headwaters above strategically important hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole
indices were used as inputs. Predictability was evaluated for average summer inflows
conditional on the tercile of the preceding winter climate mode. We find that the winter Niño 3.4 index was significantly positively correlated with following summer
inflows to Nurek, Andijan, and Toktogul reservoirs during the period 1941–1980.
Kruskal–Wallis and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests show significant differences in the
distributions of summer inflows depending on previous winter Niño 3.4 for all three
reservoirs. At Nurek, summer inflows were on average 19% greater following a winter
El Niño. During 1941–2016, mean summer inflows to Nurek reservoir linked to previous November–December Niño 3.4 achieved a Heidke Hit Proportion of 51–59%
(compared with 33% expected by chance). Acceptable predictions of summer inflow
volume were made 44% of the time. Higher inflows are explained by a south‐
westerly moisture flux that brings above average precipitation to Central Asia during
winter El Niño conditions. Our procedure requires limited data, technical or computing resources—all considerations in data sparse, low capacity regions. Given planned
developments of other large, headwater impoundments in Central Asia, early outlooks of discharge could contribute to improved dam safety, economic performance,
and transboundary water sharing around such projects.
Funding
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
River Research and ApplicationsVolume
35Issue
8Pages
1141 - 1154Publisher
WileyVersion
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Rights holder
© WileyPublisher statement
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: DIXON, S.G. and WILBY, R.L., 2019. A seasonal fore-casting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia. River Research and Applications, 35 (8), pp.1141–1154, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3506. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.Acceptance date
2019-07-04Publication date
2019/07/31Copyright date
2019ISSN
1535-1459eISSN
1535-1467Publisher version
Language
- en