INFORMS Tutorial 2018 - Montibeller Behavior in Policy Analysis - revised final.pdf (1.24 MB)
Behavioral challenges in policy analysis with conflicting objectives
Public policy problems are rife with conflicting objectives: efficiency versus fairness,
technical criteria versus political goals, costs versus multiple benefits. Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis provides robust methodologies to support policy makers in making
tough choices and in designing better policy options when considering these
conflicting objectives. However, important behavioral challenges exist in developing
these models: the use of expert judgments, whenever evidence is not available; the
elicitation of preferences and priorities from policy makers and communities; and the
effective management of group decision processes. The extensive developments in
behavioral decision research, social psychology, facilitated decision modeling, and
incomplete preference models shed light on how decision analysts should address
these issues, so we can provide better decision support and develop high quality
decision models. In this tutorial I discuss the main findings of these extensive, but
rather fragmented, literatures providing a coherent and practical framework for
managing behavioral issues, minimizing behavioral biases, and optimizing the quality
of human judgments in policy analysis models with conflicting objectives. I illustrate
these guidelines with policy analysis interventions that we have conducted over the
last decade for several organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO),
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the UK
Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Malaria
Consortium/USAID, the UK National Audit Office, among others.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Business
Published in
Recent Advances in Optimization and Modeling of Contemporary ProblemsPages
85 - 108Publisher
InformsVersion
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Rights holder
© InformsPublisher statement
This paper was accepted for publication, the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2018.0182Publication date
2018-10-19Copyright date
2019Notes
Presented at the INFORMS Annual Meeting, November 4–7, 2018ISBN
9780990615323Publisher version
Language
- en
Editor(s)
Douglas Shier; Esma Gel; Lewis NtaimoDepositor
Prof Gilberto Montibeller. Deposit date: 15 November 2019Usage metrics
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