Proc. R. Soc. A-2013-House-.pdf (1.08 MB)
How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation
journal contribution
posted on 2014-03-07, 15:34 authored by Thomas House, Joshua V. Ross, David SirlEpidemic models have become a routinely used
tool to inform policy on infectious disease. A
particular interest at the moment is the use of
computationally intensive inference to parametrize
these models. In this context, numerical efficiency
is critically important. We consider methods for
evaluating the probability mass function of the total
number of infections over the course of a stochastic
epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite
populations, but also considering heterogeneous and
large populations. Relevant methods are reviewed
critically, with existing and novel extensions also
presented. We provide code in MATLAB and a
systematic comparison of numerical efficiency.
Funding
T.H. is supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council. J.V.R. was supported under Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding scheme (project no. DP110102893).
History
School
- Science
Department
- Mathematical Sciences
Citation
HOUSE, T., ROSS, J.V. and SIRL, D., 2013. How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation. Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 469 (2150), 20120436, 22pp.Publisher
© The Authors. Published by the Royal SocietyVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publication date
2013Notes
© 2012 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.ISSN
1364-5021Publisher version
Language
- en