FutureDroughtManagementJOEE_Revision1_July2015_JOEE-D-15-00004.pdf (2.94 MB)
Low flow response surfaces for drought decision support: A case study from the UK
journal contribution
posted on 2016-04-15, 10:16 authored by Christel Prudhomme, Eric Sauquet, Glen WattsDroughts are complex natural hazards, and planning future management is complicated by the difficulty of projecting future drought and low flow conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of a response surface approach to explore the hydrological behaviour of catchments under a range of
possible future conditions. Choosing appropriate hydrological metrics ensures that the response surfaces are relevant to decision-making. Examples from two contrasting English catchments show how low flows in different catchments respond to changes in rainfall and temperature. In an upland western catchment, the Mint, low flows respond most to rainfall and temperature changes in summer, but in the groundwater dominated catchment of the Thet, changes in spring rainfall have the biggest
impact on summer flows. Response surfaces are useful for understanding long-term changes, such as those projected in climate projections, but they may also prove useful in drought event management, where possible future conditions can be plotted onto the surface to understand the range of
conditions the manager faces. Developing effective response surfaces requires considerable involvement and learning from catchment decision-makers at an early stage, and this should be considered in any planned application.
Funding
Christel Prudhomme was funded by NERC-Water Resource Science Area National Capability. Funding for Eric Sauquet was provided by a grant from la Region Rhône-Alpes.
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
Journal of Extreme EventsVolume
02Issue
02Pages
1550005 - 1550005Citation
PRUDHOMME, C., SAUQUET, E. and WATTS, G., 2015. Low flow response surfaces for drought decision support: A case study from the UK. Journal of Extreme Events, 02(02), pp. 1550005-1550005.Publisher
© World Scientific PublishingVersion
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Publication date
2015Notes
Electronic version of an article published as Journal of Extreme Events, 02, 02, 2015, pp. 1550005-1550005, 10.1142/S2345737615500050, © copyright World Scientific Publishing Company, http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/joee.ISSN
2345-7376eISSN
2382-6339Publisher version
Language
- en