Measured internal temperatures in UK homes: a time series analysis and modelling approach

This paper presents an analysis of internal air temperatures measured hourly in the living rooms of 230 domestic buildings in the city of Leicester, UK. Time series analysis is used to identify the mechanisms that shape room temperatures, during the summertime period of July and August, in rooms that are neither mechanically heated nor cooled, and to develop empirical models of room temperatures for use in predicting future temperatures based on past measured values and on future weather conditions. Such models can enable overheating risk alerts for homeowners and public authorities to be more accurately estimated and targeted.