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The application of componentised modelling techniques to catastrophe model generation

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journal contribution
posted on 05.12.2014 by K.R. Royse, John Hillier, Lei Wang, T.F. Lee, J. O'Niel, A. Kingdon, A. Hughes
In this paper we show that integrated environmental modelling (IEM) techniques can be used to generate a catastrophe model for groundwater flooding. Catastrophe models are probabilistic models based upon sets of events representing the hazard and weights their likelihood with the impact of such an event happening which is then used to estimate future financial losses. These probabilistic loss estimates often underpin re-insurance transactions. Modelled loss estimates can vary significantly, because of the assumptions used within the models. A rudimentary insurance-style catastrophe model for groundwater flooding has been created by linking seven individual components together. Each component is linked to the next using an open modelling framework (i.e. an implementation of OpenMI). Finally, we discuss how a flexible model integration methodology, such as described in this paper, facilitates a better understanding of the assumptions used within the catastrophe model by enabling the interchange of model components created using different, yet appropriate, assumptions.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volume

61

Pages

65 - 77

Citation

ROYSE, K.R. ... et al., 2014. The application of componentised modelling techniques to catastrophe model generation. Environmental Modelling and Software, 61, pp.65-77

Publisher

Crown Copyright © 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2014

Notes

Available from NERC at: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/508016/ NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Modelling and Software. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Modelling and Software, [61 (2014) 65-77] DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.005

ISSN

1364-8152

Language

en

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