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The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios

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journal contribution
posted on 2015-12-21, 15:11 authored by Daniel Quiggin, Richard BuswellRichard Buswell
Published UK 2050 energy scenarios specify a range of decarbonised supply side technologies combined with electrification of transportation and heating. These scenarios are designed to meet CO2 reduction targets whilst maintaining reliability of supply. Current models of the UK energy system either make significant assumptions about the role of demand side management or do not carry out the analysis at sufficient resolution and hence determining the impact of heat electrification on the reliability of supply of the scenarios is not possible. This paper presents a new model that estimates national supply and demand, hour-by-hour. Calculations are based on 11 years of weather data which allows a probabilistic assessment of deficit frequency throughout the day. It is found that achieving demand reduction targets are far more important than meeting electrification targets and that significant adoption of CHP is most likely to deliver a viable energy future for the UK.

Funding

This research was made possible by Engineering and Physical Sciences Re search Council (EPSRC) support for the London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand (grant EP/H009612/1).

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

Energy

Volume

98

Pages

253-270

Citation

QUIGGIN, D. and BUSWELL, R.A., 2016. The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios. Energy, 98, pp.253-270.

Publisher

© Elsevier

Version

  • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Acceptance date

2015-11-26

Publication date

2016-02-06

Copyright date

2016

Notes

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Energy and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060

ISSN

0360-5442

Language

  • en