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The potential for the use of model fusion techniques in building and developing catastrophe models
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posted on 2015-07-06, 15:19 authored by K.R. Royse, John HillierJohn Hillier, A. Hughes, A. Kingdon, A. Singh, Lei WangGlobal economic losses related to natural hazards are large and increasing, peaking at
US$380 billion in 2011 driven by earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand and flooding in Thailand.
Catastrophe models are stochastic event-set based computer models, first created 25 years ago, that
are now vital to risk assessment within the insurance and reinsurance industry. They estimate likely
losses from extreme events, whether natural or man-made. Most catastrophe models limit the level
of user interaction, stereotyped as ‘black boxes’. In this paper we investigate how model fusion
techniques could be used to develop ‘plug and play’ catastrophe models and discuss the impact
of open access modelling on the insurance industry and other stakeholders (e.g. local government).
Funding
This paper is published with the permission of the Executive Director of the British Geological Survey. The work was funded under the NERC PURE research consortium and forms part of K. R. Royse’s NERC KE Fellowship.
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges Special PublicationsVolume
408Pages
1 - 11Citation
ROYSE, K.R. ... et al, 2016. The potential for the use of model fusion techniques in building and developing catastrophe models. IN: Riddick, A.T., Kessler, H. and Giles, J.R.A. (eds). Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges. London: Geological Society of London, pp. 89-99.Publisher
© The Geological Society of LondonVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Publication date
2016Notes
This book chapter is closed access.ISBN
9781862396876ISSN
0305-8719Publisher version
Book series
Geological Society Special Publications;volume 408Language
- en