Through-life NEC scenario development

Scenarios are an important planning tool used by individuals, businesses and governments (especially in the military domain), but many of the currently used approaches focus solely on acute probabilistic timeframes and specific metricated instances of possible future states. Using a mixed method research methodology, we develop a scenario approach in which multiple timeframes are accommodated by fitting vignettes within each other to represent different time levels. This has the advantage of presenting the end-to-end process of capability development and instantiation. We describe the methodology employed to generate such a scenario as a demonstration aid for a large, multidisciplinary research program in systems of systems engineering. The process of scenario generation was an effective integration tool within this program (that included twelve distributed research groups). The resultant scenario enabled engagement of multiple stakeholders in an integrated demonstration of systems related research outputs. We recommend a new class of scenario (a “research scenario”) for incorporation within the standard classifications of scenario types.