Uncertainty analysis of photovoltaic energy yield prediction

2013-03-06T10:26:16Z (GMT) by Brian Goss Ralph Gottschalg Tom Betts
Developers of photo-voltaic (PV) systems need better information about the uncertainties in energy yield predictions, since the uncertainty in the return on investment is a financial risk which the financier will deflect back to the developer in higher cost of finance, thereby adding to the project life-cycle costs. Therefore better understanding of PV modelling uncertainty is needed to inform development of more accurate measurement and modelling. This paper reviews the uncertainty of all input parameters used for the CREST PV energy yield model. More detailed tolerance data in PV module datasheets is proposed, in addition to a more accurate ohmic and fault loss analysis of the AC (alternating current) sub-system using a simple classification of utility connection type.