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The potential for the use of model fusion techniques in building and developing catastrophe models

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posted on 06.07.2015 by K.R. Royse, John Hillier, A. Hughes, A. Kingdon, A. Singh, Lei Wang
Global economic losses related to natural hazards are large and increasing, peaking at US$380 billion in 2011 driven by earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand and flooding in Thailand. Catastrophe models are stochastic event-set based computer models, first created 25 years ago, that are now vital to risk assessment within the insurance and reinsurance industry. They estimate likely losses from extreme events, whether natural or man-made. Most catastrophe models limit the level of user interaction, stereotyped as ‘black boxes’. In this paper we investigate how model fusion techniques could be used to develop ‘plug and play’ catastrophe models and discuss the impact of open access modelling on the insurance industry and other stakeholders (e.g. local government).

Funding

This paper is published with the permission of the Executive Director of the British Geological Survey. The work was funded under the NERC PURE research consortium and forms part of K. R. Royse’s NERC KE Fellowship.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges Special Publications

Volume

408

Pages

1 - 11

Citation

ROYSE, K.R. ... et al, 2016. The potential for the use of model fusion techniques in building and developing catastrophe models. IN: Riddick, A.T., Kessler, H. and Giles, J.R.A. (eds). Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges. London: Geological Society of London, pp. 89-99.

Publisher

© The Geological Society of London

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2016

Notes

This book chapter is closed access.

ISBN

9781862396876

ISSN

0305-8719

Book series

Geological Society Special Publications;volume 408

Language

en

Editor(s)

Riddick, A.T.;Kessler, H.;Giles, J.A.R.

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