A Monte Carlo tree search framework for autonomous source term estimation in stone soup

Source term estimation of a hazardous release remains a topic of significant interest in the robotics and state estimation communities, with application to many safety critical scenarios including gas or nuclear release, locating suspicious smells or response to emergency incidents. Limited sensing resources and time constraints mean that deciding on how to act in order to improve efficiency of estimation is also of significant interest. This paper has two main focuses: a sequential Monte Carlo technique for performing source term estimation from gas concentration measurements taken on a mobile sensor platform and a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) framework to perform sensor motion planning to maximise Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD). Both algorithms are implemented in the open source tracking and estimation framework: Stone Soup, creating several key contributions to this Python based toolkit. The presented algorithm demonstrates superior performance when compared to a greedy myopic alternative when considering source position estimation error, release rate error and successful rate performance measures.