Developing a geographically detailed housing stock model for the North East of England

Housing stock models predict long term changes in the stock to inform national policy. They operate with a set of reference dwellings representing the national stock, which are changed in response to different scenarios. However, national level models do not consider geographical variations (urban location/rural surroundings, index of multiple deprivation score, etc.), so cannot aid in targeting improvement measures (eg: insulation, microgeneration, etc.) locally. A geographically varying model can identify which measures are most appropriate in a particular location. In this paper a method has been designed and implemented using information at LSOA level (c. 700 dwellings each) to introduce geographical variation for a model of the North East of England. It has been tested against DECC meter data and over 80% of LSOAs are predicted to within ±25% of DECC’s data. The model allows localised policies and interventions to be tested, and is principally of interest to local government and energy efficiency initiatives.