Implications of uncertainties in energy demand baseline estimations on building energy flexibility

Energy flexibility, defined here as demand modifications provided by buildings, can offer major benefits to the wider energy system through demand response. In demand response schemes contributions made by participants are measured against baseline demand profiles. This paper presents results from comparing different baseline scenarios and their respective uncertainties. The analysis was done using data from experiments where MPC was used to respond to demand response events during mornings and evenings in a testing facility of matched semidetached houses in the UK over 11/2019-1/2020. The results showed that a prevailing baseline methodology used in demand response had high uncertainty compared to baselines calculated using data-driven modelling techniques. High uncertainties were found to limit the verifiability of small demand reductions provided by the houses. The matched house experiments made it possible to directly compare the energy demand profiles between the two houses.