Techno-economic analysis of hybrid-PV systems in UNDP country office

When formulating a business case, it is imperative to provide a correct estimate to win the trust and credibility of the customer. Most business cases forecast higher returns and energy yield, as compared to the performance of the actual project. This is primarily due to their optimistic assumptions. To make accurate estimates, a deeper research into the performance of past installations is necessary. This study develops a realistic approach by comparing the performance of three existing systems (Real cases) with their initial business case estimation (Business cases). Hybrid Optimization Models for Energy Resources (HOMER) software is used to determine a key parameter, the derating factor, from the existing systems. The factors affecting the derating factor are analyzed using PVSOL and other methods. Several performance indicators are then used to indicate the technical and economic aspects of the project. The results conclude that the derating factor directly affects the technical performance, while the economic aspect of the project is affected by both the discount rate of the country and the technical parameters of the PV system. The study recommends the use of 70% as the standard derating factor for developing future business cases, and suggests the replacement of the generic discount rate, with the real discount rate of the country.