The impact of uncertain input parameters in Dynamic Thermal Models on overheating assessment

Dynamic Thermal Models are used to simulate indoor temperatures at high temporal resolution for overheating building regulation compliance assessments. Prior research, however, shows that models do not reliably predict the overheating risk. This may be due to the assumptions a modeller must make about the properties of building elements and external conditions. This paper examines a range of uncertain parameters related to a building’s thermal performance and assesses their impact on overheating predictions. The results show that, for the case study building, the solar heat gain coefficient of windows and the ground temperature had the biggest impact on indoor temperatures. As these, and other, parameters are rarely certain, it might be prudent to model the probability that overheating will occur.