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The impact of uncertain input parameters in dynamic thermal models on overheating assessment

conference contribution
posted on 2024-03-21, 11:33 authored by Marlena SwanMarlena Swan, Arash BeizaeeArash Beizaee, Ben M RobertsBen M Roberts, George Bennett, Kevin LomasKevin Lomas

Dynamic Thermal Models are used to simulate indoor temperatures at high temporal resolution for overheating building regulation compliance assessments. Prior research, however, shows that models do not reliably predict the overheating risk. This may be due to the assumptions a modeller must make about the properties of building elements and external conditions. This paper examines a range of uncertain parameters related to a building’s thermal performance and assesses their impact on overheating predictions. The results show that, for the case study building, the solar heat gain coefficient of windows and the ground temperature had the biggest impact on indoor temperatures. As these, and other, parameters are rarely certain, it might be prudent to model the probability that overheating will occur.

Funding

EPSRC and SFI Centre for Doctoral Training in Energy Resilience and the Built Environment

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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UK government, BEIS/DESNZ

EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Energy Demand (LoLo)

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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Tyréns, the Swedish urban development and infrastructure consultancy, via their Research & Innovation Fund

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

CIBSE Technical Symposium 2024

Source

CIBSE Technical Symposium 2024

Publisher

Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE)

Version

  • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This paper will be presented at the CIBSE Technical Symposium 2024 and will be available at https://www.cibse.org/what-s-on/cibse-technical-symposium/past-papers-and-case-studies-archive

Acceptance date

2024-01-24

Copyright date

2024

Publisher version

Language

  • en

Location

Cardiff, UK

Event dates

11th April 2024 - 12th April 2024

Depositor

Marlena Swan. Deposit date: 19 March 2024

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