Using foresight futures and systems thinking to evaluate digitally enhanced advanced service concepts for a rolling stock company (ROSCO)

Purpose: This paper reports on a study in conjunction with a UK-based rolling stock leasing company (ROSCO). The aim was to generate and evaluate future operational concepts for digitally enhanced advanced services from the point of view of a ROSCO – one of many stakeholders (or actors) within a future wider mobility ecosystem.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The research design followed the Generic Foresight Process Framework (Voros 2003). Desk-based research and horizon scanning analysis revealed technologies, mobility and transport trends, and other predictions towards 2060. A workshop was developed and participants were presented with a series of future scenarios and design fictions for end-to-end intermodal mobility and passenger carbon quotas. A future Mobility Servitization Systems Architecture was developed.

Findings: Five future megatrends were identified; Decarbonisation, changing traveller needs, digitisation, mobility ecosystems and new business models in digital ecosystems. The ‘what-if’ activities revealed insights into alternate futures; revealing system of systems (SoS) actors, the role of a ROSCO, integrations, assumptions and operational constraints.

Originality/Value: This research contributes to engineering and design methods for digitally enhanced advanced services, particularly for corporate strategic foresight in a dominant design industry. The Mobility Servitization Systems Architecture was seen to be a powerful model for ecosystem understanding.