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Utilizing real-time traffic and weather data to explore crash frequency on urban motorways: a cusp catastrophe approach

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conference contribution
posted on 01.04.2021, 11:12 by Athanasios Theofilatos
The investigation of crash frequency with freeway traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. This paper extends previous research by proposing nonlinear models for modeling crash frequencies which incorporate real-time traffic and weather data collected from an urban motorway in Athens, Greece. Cusp catastrophe theory is applied and compared with traditional statistical models such as the negative binomial model. The results of crash frequency models provide evidence of the potential applicability of the cusp catastrophe theory to road safety, however it seems that linearity of the system is preserved. Hence, traditional models such as the negative binomial model are proved equally capable of describing the underlying phenomenon, even though the goodness-of-fit is not as good as that of the cusp model. Therefore, the explanation of crash frequency phenomenon only with nonlinear model can be supported. A number of interesting findings have also been disclosed. Firstly, is that rainfall intensity has a strong linear impact on crashes (high rainfall intensity causes more crashes). On the other hand, average flow is indicated to have a strong non-linear relationship with crash frequency. Finally, more research is needed to further understand the applicability of cusp catastrophe theory in road safety.

Funding

This research is implemented through IKY scholarships programme and co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the action entitled ”Reinforcement of Postdoctoral Researchers”, in the framework of the Operational Programme ”Human Resources Development Program, Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) 2014 – 2020.

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

Transportation Research Procedia

Volume

41

Pages

471 - 479

Source

International Scientific Conference on Mobility and Transport - "Urban Mobility - Shaping the Future Together" mobil.TUM 2018

Publisher

Elsevier

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Elsevier under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Acceptance date

28/11/2019

Publication date

2019-11-28

Copyright date

2019

ISSN

2352-1465

eISSN

2352-1465

Language

en

Editor(s)

Constantinos Antoniou; Fritz Busch; Rolf Moeckel; Gebhard Wulfhorst; Maximilian Pfertner

Location

Munich, Germany

Event dates

13th June 2018 - 14th June 2018

Depositor

Dr Akis Theofilatos. Deposit date: 29 March 2021