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How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation

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journal contribution
posted on 07.03.2014 by Thomas House, Joshua V. Ross, David Sirl
Epidemic models have become a routinely used tool to inform policy on infectious disease. A particular interest at the moment is the use of computationally intensive inference to parametrize these models. In this context, numerical efficiency is critically important. We consider methods for evaluating the probability mass function of the total number of infections over the course of a stochastic epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite populations, but also considering heterogeneous and large populations. Relevant methods are reviewed critically, with existing and novel extensions also presented. We provide code in MATLAB and a systematic comparison of numerical efficiency.

Funding

T.H. is supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council. J.V.R. was supported under Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding scheme (project no. DP110102893).

History

School

  • Science

Department

  • Mathematical Sciences

Citation

HOUSE, T., ROSS, J.V. and SIRL, D., 2013. How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation. Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 469 (2150), 20120436, 22pp.

Publisher

© The Authors. Published by the Royal Society

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publication date

2013

Notes

© 2012 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

ISSN

1364-5021

Language

en

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