Slater, Singer, Kirchner - 2015 - Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard.pdf (10.09 MB)

Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard

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journal contribution
posted on 02.02.2017 by Louise Slater, Michael Bliss Singer, James W. Kirchner
Flooding is a major hazard to lives and infrastructure, but trends in flood hazard are poorly understood. The capacity of river channels to convey flood flows is typically assumed to be stationary, so changes in flood frequency are thought to be driven primarily by trends in streamflow. We have developed new methods for separately quantifying how trends in both streamflow and channel capacity have affected flood frequency at gauging sites across the United States Flood frequency was generally nonstationary, with increasing flood hazard at a statistically significant majority of sites. Changes in flood hazard driven by channel capacity were smaller, but more numerous, than those driven by streamflow. Our results demonstrate that accurately quantifying changes in flood hazard requires accounting separately for trends in both streamflow and channel capacity. They also show that channel capacity trends may have unforeseen consequences for flood management and for estimating flood insurance costs.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

42

Issue

2

Pages

370 - 376

Citation

SLATER, L., SINGER, M.B. and KIRCHNER, J.W., 2015. Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(2), pp. 370-376.

Publisher

© The authors. Published by American Geophysical Union

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/

Publication date

2015

Notes

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by American Geophysical Union under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

ISSN

0094-8276

Language

en

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