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Low flow response surfaces for drought decision support: A case study from the UK

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journal contribution
posted on 15.04.2016 by Christel Prudhomme, Eric Sauquet, Glen Watts
Droughts are complex natural hazards, and planning future management is complicated by the difficulty of projecting future drought and low flow conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of a response surface approach to explore the hydrological behaviour of catchments under a range of possible future conditions. Choosing appropriate hydrological metrics ensures that the response surfaces are relevant to decision-making. Examples from two contrasting English catchments show how low flows in different catchments respond to changes in rainfall and temperature. In an upland western catchment, the Mint, low flows respond most to rainfall and temperature changes in summer, but in the groundwater dominated catchment of the Thet, changes in spring rainfall have the biggest impact on summer flows. Response surfaces are useful for understanding long-term changes, such as those projected in climate projections, but they may also prove useful in drought event management, where possible future conditions can be plotted onto the surface to understand the range of conditions the manager faces. Developing effective response surfaces requires considerable involvement and learning from catchment decision-makers at an early stage, and this should be considered in any planned application.

Funding

Christel Prudhomme was funded by NERC-Water Resource Science Area National Capability. Funding for Eric Sauquet was provided by a grant from la Region Rhône-Alpes.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Journal of Extreme Events

Volume

02

Issue

02

Pages

1550005 - 1550005

Citation

PRUDHOMME, C., SAUQUET, E. and WATTS, G., 2015. Low flow response surfaces for drought decision support: A case study from the UK. Journal of Extreme Events, 02(02), pp. 1550005-1550005.

Publisher

© World Scientific Publishing

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2015

Notes

Electronic version of an article published as Journal of Extreme Events, 02, 02, 2015, pp. 1550005-1550005, 10.1142/S2345737615500050, © copyright World Scientific Publishing Company, http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/joee.

ISSN

2345-7376

eISSN

2382-6339

Language

en

Exports