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Multi-domain analysis of photovoltaic impacts via integrated spatial and probabilistic modelling

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journal contribution
posted on 08.06.2015, 13:10 by Paul Rowley, Philip Leicester, Diane Palmer, Paul Westacott, Chiara Candelise, Ralph Gottschalg, Tom Betts
Currently, the impacts of wide-scale implementation of photovoltaic (PV) technology are evaluated in terms of such indicators as rated capacity, energy output or return on investment. However, as PV markets mature, consideration of additional impacts (such as electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure or socio-economic factors) is required to evaluate potential costs and benefits of wide-scale PV in relation to specific policy objectives. This study describes a hybrid GIS spatio-temporal modelling approach integrating probabilistic analysis via a Bayesian technique to evaluate multi-scale/multi-domain impacts of PV. First, a wide-area solar resource modelling approach utilising GIS-based dynamic interpolation is presented and the implications for improved impact analysis on electrical networks are discussed. Subsequently, a GIS-based analysis of PV deployment in an area of constrained electricity network capacity is presented, along with an impact analysis of specific policy implementation upon the spatial distribution of increasing PV penetration. Finally, a Bayesian probabilistic graphical model for assessment of socioeconomic impacts of domestic PV at high penetrations is demonstrated. Taken together, the results show that integrated spatio-temporal probabilistic assessment supports multi-domain analysis of the impacts of PV, thereby providing decision makers with a tool to facilitate deliberative and systematic evidence-based policy making incorporating diverse stakeholder perspectives.

Funding

This work has been conducted as part of the research project ‘PV2025 – Potential Costs and Benefits of Photovoltaic for UK Infrastructure and Society’ project which is funded by the RCUK’s Energy Programme [grant no: EP/K02227X/1].

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

IET Renewable Power Generation

Citation

ROWLEY, P. ... et al, 2015. Multi-domain analysis of photovoltaic impacts via integrated spatial and probabilistic modelling. IET Renewable Power Generation, 9(5), pp.424-431.

Publisher

Institution of Engineering and Technology

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Publication date

2015

Notes

This is an Open Access Article published by IET and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed.

ISSN

1752-1416

Language

en

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