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The prebisch-singer hypothesis: four centuries of evidence

journal contribution
posted on 09.07.2014, 09:03 by David I. Harvey, Neil M. Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen, Mark Wohar
We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Business

Published in

Review of Economics and Statistics

Volume

92

Issue

2

Pages

367 - 377

Citation

HARVEY, D.I. ... et al., 2010. The prebisch-singer hypothesis: four centuries of evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92 (2), pp. 367 - 377.

Publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press (MIT Press) © The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Publication date

2010

Notes

Closed access.

ISSN

0034-6535

eISSN

1530-9142

Language

en

Exports

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Keywords

Exports