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The prebisch-singer hypothesis: four centuries of evidence
journal contributionposted on 09.07.2014 by David I. Harvey, Neil M. Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen, Mark Wohar
Any type of content formally published in an academic journal, usually following a peer-review process.
We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
- Business and Economics