A machine learning framework for quantifying in-game space-control efficiency in football

Analysis of player tracking and event data in football matches is used by the coaching staff to evaluate team performance and to inform tactical decision-making, whereas using Machine Learning methods to gain useful insights from the data is still an open research question. The objective of our research is to discover the football team's space-control efficiency using a novel Machine Learning approach and evaluate the team performance based on its space-control efficiency. We develop a novel Possession Evaluation Model through deep generative machine learning to predict the football team's space-control capability utilising tracking and event data. The developed model is used to quantify the efficiency of attacking and defending for a given sequence of play. Performance analysis results demonstrate that this novel method of space-control efficiency quantification is objective and precise. The superior performance of the model is attributed to the utilization of deep generative modelling on image datasets and conditioning in the prediction with contextual factors. This study presents a novel approach to football analysis in evaluating team performance and providing tactical insights for the coach to make data-informed adjustments.