Adaptive diurnal prediction of ambient dry-bulb temperature and solar radiation
journal contributionposted on 2008-10-09, 14:14 authored by Mei J. Ren, Jonathan WrightJonathan Wright
This paper presents a new adaptive weather-prediction model that can be used for on-line control of HVAC and thermal storage systems. The model can predict external dry-bulb temperature and solar radiation over the next 24 h. Because a building with a fabric thermal storage system has a slow response to thermal loads, a predictive controller is essential to operate the building and associated plant installation to respond effectively to external climatic conditions ahead of time. Three prediction methods are investigated in the paper: a pure stochastic method, a combined deterministic-stochastic method, and an expanded method for short-term temperature forecast. It has been found that the combined deterministic-stochastic method is simpler and gives the smallest prediction errors. For the prediction of solar radiation, a deterministic model is proposed. The proposed prediction algorithms for temperature and radiation are simple and efficient to conduct on a supervisory PC to predict hourly temperature and radiation profiles over the next 24 h. Updating temperature forecasts using observations available with time is also investigated in this paper.
- Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering
CitationREN, M.J. and WRIGHT, J.A., 2002. Adaptive diurnal prediction of ambient dry-bulb temperature and solar radiation. HVAC&R Research, 8(4), pp. 383-402
Publisher© American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc.
NotesThis is a journal article. [© American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc. (www.ashrae.org)]. Reprinted by permission from HVAC&R Research, Vol. 8, Part 4. Additional reproduction, distribution, or transmission in either print or digital form is not permitted without ASHRAE’s prior written permission. It is also available at: www.ashrae.org/hvacr-research