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Download fileAdaptive diurnal prediction of ambient dry-bulb temperature and solar radiation
journal contribution
posted on 2008-10-09, 14:14 authored by Mei J. Ren, Jonathan WrightJonathan WrightThis paper presents a new adaptive weather-prediction model that can be used for on-line control
of HVAC and thermal storage systems. The model can predict external dry-bulb temperature
and solar radiation over the next 24 h. Because a building with a fabric thermal storage
system has a slow response to thermal loads, a predictive controller is essential to operate the
building and associated plant installation to respond effectively to external climatic conditions
ahead of time. Three prediction methods are investigated in the paper: a pure stochastic
method, a combined deterministic-stochastic method, and an expanded method for short-term
temperature forecast. It has been found that the combined deterministic-stochastic method is
simpler and gives the smallest prediction errors. For the prediction of solar radiation, a deterministic
model is proposed. The proposed prediction algorithms for temperature and radiation
are simple and efficient to conduct on a supervisory PC to predict hourly temperature and radiation
profiles over the next 24 h. Updating temperature forecasts using observations available
with time is also investigated in this paper.
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School
- Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering