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Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

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journal contribution
posted on 05.06.2018, 09:05 authored by Rachel F. Warren, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby, K. [Kathryn] Brown, Paul Watkiss, Richard A. Betts, James M. Murphy, Jason A. Lowe
A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.

Funding

K.H. and R.F.W. were funded by the UK Climate Change Committee. R.F.W. and R.A.B. were funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007–2013 (grant number: 603864, HELIX). R.A.B., J.M.M. and J.A.L. were funded by the BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Volume

376

Issue

2121

Citation

WARREN, R.F. ... et al, 2018. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376 (2121), 20170295.

Publisher

Royal Society © The Authors

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Acceptance date

16/03/2018

Publication date

2018

Notes

This paper was published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0295.

ISSN

1364-503X

eISSN

1471-2962

Language

en