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Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
journal contributionposted on 2016-03-08, 11:36 authored by Sonia I. Seneviratne, Markus G. Donat, Andy J. Pitman, Reto Knutti, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.
S.I.S. acknowledges the European Research Council (ERC) ‘DROUGHT-HEAT’ project funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (grant agreement FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518). A.J.P. and M.G.D. were supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (grant number CE110001028). M.G.D. was also supported by the ARC (grant number DE1501004).
- Geography and Environment
Pages477 - 483
CitationSENEVIRATNE, S.I. ...et al., 2016. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529(7587), pp. 477-483.
Publisher© Nature Publishing Group
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publisher statementThis work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
NotesThis paper was accepted for publication in the journal Nature and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature16542