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An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard
journal contribution
posted on 2019-06-14, 10:21 authored by Tom Matthews, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby, Conor MurphyClimate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather
(compound events). Here we evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major tropical cyclones (TCs) – a combination with serious potential consequences given that
mega-blackouts may follow powerful TCs2, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning. We show that “TC-heat” events are already possible along densely populated coastlines
globally but, so far, only an estimated 1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number could rise markedly, with over two million at risk under a storyline of the
observed TCs recurring in a 2°C warmer world than preindustrial. Using analogues as focussing events we show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone occurred with 2°C global warming, there would be >70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare for an emerging TC-heat compound hazard.
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
Nature Climate ChangeVolume
9Pages
602–606Citation
MATTHEWS, T.K.R., WILBY, R.L. and MURPHY, C., 2019. An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 602–606.Publisher
© the Author. Published by Nature ResearchVersion
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publisher statement
This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Nature Climate Change and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6 and https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0525-6.Acceptance date
2019-06-06Publication date
2019-07-22Copyright date
2019ISSN
1758-678XeISSN
1758-6798Publisher version
Language
- en