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An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard

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journal contribution
posted on 14.06.2019 by Tom Matthews, Robert Wilby, Conor Murphy
Climate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather (compound events). Here we evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major tropical cyclones (TCs) – a combination with serious potential consequences given that mega-blackouts may follow powerful TCs2, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning. We show that “TC-heat” events are already possible along densely populated coastlines globally but, so far, only an estimated 1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number could rise markedly, with over two million at risk under a storyline of the observed TCs recurring in a 2°C warmer world than preindustrial. Using analogues as focussing events we show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone occurred with 2°C global warming, there would be >70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare for an emerging TC-heat compound hazard.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Nature Climate Change

Volume

9

Pages

602–606

Citation

MATTHEWS, T.K.R., WILBY, R.L. and MURPHY, C., 2019. An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard. Nature Climate Change, 9, pp. 602–606.

Publisher

© the Author. Published by Nature Research

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Nature Climate Change and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6 and https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0525-6.

Acceptance date

06/06/2019

Publication date

2019-07-22

Copyright date

2019

ISSN

1758-678X

eISSN

1758-6798

Language

en

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Keyword(s)

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