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An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network

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posted on 20.10.2015 by Robert Wilby, Simon Noone, Conor Murphy, Tom Matthews, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick
This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry spell and wet spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p = 0.125) of a 5-year dry spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

International Journal of Climatology

Citation

WILBY, R.L. ... et al, 2016. An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (8), pp. 2854-2865.

Publisher

Wiley (© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society)

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2016

Notes

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: WILBY, R.L. ... et al, 2016. An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (8), pp. 2854-2865., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.

ISSN

0899-8418

eISSN

1097-0088

Language

en

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