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An integrated approach for modeling sustainability risks in freight transportation systems

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journal contribution
posted on 13.12.2019, 09:40 authored by Divya Choudhary, Ravi Shankar, Alok Choudhary
Integrating sustainability into freight transportation systems (FTSs) is a complex and challenging task due to the sheer number of inherent sustainability risks. Sustainability risks disrupt the socio-economicenvironmental efficiency of freight operations and act as impediments in the development of sustainable freight transportation systems (SFTSs). The area of sustainability risk management is still unexplored and immature in the operational research domain. This study addresses these research gaps and contributes in a three-fold manner. Firstly, a rigorous approach is used to identify a total of 36 potential sustainability risks uniquely classified into 7 categories for the FTSs. Secondly, the research proposes two prominent perspectives namely, ontological and epistemological perspectives to understand risks and develops a novel framework for managing sustainability risks in FTSs. Thirdly, a novel approach by integrating fuzzy evidential reasoning algorithm (FERA) with expected utility theory is developed to quantitatively model and profile sustainability risk for different risk preferences namely, risk-averse; risk-neutral; and risk-taking scenarios. FERA is a flexible and robust approach, which transforms the experts’ inputs into belief structures and aggregates them using the evidence combination rule proposed in Dempster-Shafer Theory to overcome the problem of imprecise results caused by average scoring in existing models. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model. Unlike conventional perception, our study suggests that most of the high priority sustainability risks are behaviorally and socially induced rather than financially driven. The results provide significant managerial implications including a focus on skills development, and on social and behavioral dimensions while managing risks in FTSs.

Funding

UK- India Education Research Initiative (UKIERI) and University Grant Commission (UGC) for project Ref No: UGC-UKIERI 2016-17- 067, titled "Advanced Analytics for Green and Resilient Supply Chain Decision Making”

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Business

Published in

Risk Analysis

Volume

40

Issue

4

Pages

858 - 883

Publisher

Wiley

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© Society for Risk Analysis

Publisher statement

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Choudhary, D., Shankar, R. and Choudhary, A. (2020), An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems. Risk Analysis, 40: 858-883, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13435. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.

Acceptance date

11/11/2019

Publication date

2019-12-30

Copyright date

2019

ISSN

0272-4332

eISSN

1539-6924

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Alok Choudhary . Deposit date: 12 December 2019