Ferretti and Montibeller spatial risk analysis paper - revised - final.pdf (1.71 MB)
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An integrated framework for environmental multi-impact spatial risk analysis

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journal contribution
posted on 30.01.2019, 10:00 by Valentina Ferretti, Gilberto MontibellerGilberto Montibeller
Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk-mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems. However, recent attempts to conduct spatial multicriteria risk analysis have generally been weakly conceptualized, without adequate roots in quantitative risk analysis. Moreover, assessments of spatial risk often neglect the multidimensional nature of spatial impacts (e.g., social, economic, human) that are typically occurring in such decision problems. The aim of this article is therefore to suggest a conceptual quantitative framework for environmental multicriteria spatial risk analysis based on expected multi-attribute utility theory. The framework proposes: (i) the formal assessment of multiple spatial impacts; (ii) the aggregation of these multiple spatial impacts; (iii) the assessment of spatial vulnerabilities and probabilities of occurrence of adverse events; (iv) the computation of spatial risks; (v) the assessment of spatial risk mitigation alternatives; and (vi) the design and comparison of spatial risk mitigation alternatives (e.g., reductions of vulnerabilities and/or impacts). We illustrate the use of the framework in practice with a case study based on a flood-prone area in northern Italy.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Business

Published in

Risk Analysis

Volume

39

Issue

1

Pages

257 - 273

Citation

FERRETTI, V. and MONTIBELLER, G., 2017. An integrated framework for environmental multi-impact spatial risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 39 (1), pp.257-273.

Publisher

Wiley © Society for Risk Analysis

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: FERRETTI, V. and MONTIBELLER, G., 2017. An integrated framework for environmental multi-impact spatial risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 39 (1), pp.257-273, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12942. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Version

Publication date

2017-12-11

Copyright date

2019

ISSN

0272-4332

eISSN

1539-6924

Language

en