Area and individual differences in personal crime victimization incidence: the role of individual, lifestyle/routine activities and contextual predictors

This article examines how personal crime differences between areas and between individuals are predicted by area and population heterogeneity and their synergies. It draws on lifestyle/routine activities and social disorganization theories to model the number of personal victimization incidents over individuals including routine activities and area characteristics, respectively, as well as their (cross-cluster) interactions. The methodology employs multilevel or hierarchical negative binomial regression with extra binomial variation using data from the British Crime Survey and the UK Census. Personal crime rates differ substantially across areas, reflecting to a large degree the clustering of individuals with measured vulnerability factors in the same areas. Most factors suggested by theory and previous research are conducive to frequent personal victimization except the following new results. Pensioners living alone in densely populated areas face disproportionally high numbers of personal crimes. Frequent club and pub visits are associated with more personal crimes only for males and adults living with young children, respectively. Ethnic minority individuals experience fewer personal crimes than whites. The findings suggest integrating social disorganization and lifestyle theories and prioritizing resources to the most vulnerable, rather than all, residents of poor and densely populated areas to prevent personal crimes.