Argyris_Geographic_UncertaintyCrisis_Management_Version_2.0.pdf (421.27 kB)
Communicating geographical risks in crisis management: The need for research
journal contributionposted on 2017-09-05, 08:30 authored by Simon French, Nikolaos ArgyrisNikolaos Argyris, Stephanie Haywood, Matthew C. Hort, Jim Q. Smith
In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatio-temporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatio-temporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatio-temporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e. difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.
Our recent work has been funded by the UK Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee, as well as by the organisations in which we work.
- Business and Economics
Published inRisk Analysis
CitationFRENCH, S. ...et al., 2017. Communicating geographical risks in crisis management: The need for research. Risk Analysis, 39 (1), pp.9-16.
PublisherWiley © Society for Risk Analysis
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publisher statementThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: FRENCH, S. ...et al., 2017. Communicating geographical risks in crisis management: The need for research. Risk Analysis, 39 (1), pp.9-16, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12904. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.