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Determinants of energy futures—a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure

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journal contribution
posted on 11.01.2021, 13:39 authored by Nandi Moksnes, Julie Rozenberg, Oliver Broad, Constantinos Taliotis, Mark HowellsMark Howells, Holger Rogner
Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use post-processing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO2-limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical—at a continental level—to unlock economic, low-carbon investment.

Funding

World Bank

Formas

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Environmental Research Communications

Volume

1

Issue

2

Publisher

IOP Publishing Ltd

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by IOP under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence (CC BY 3.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Acceptance date

13/02/2019

Publication date

2019-03-15

Copyright date

2019

ISSN

2515-7620

eISSN

2515-7620

Language

en

Depositor

Prof Mark Howells. Deposit date: 7 January 2021

Article number

025001