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Emulating long-term weather-driven transportation earthworks deterioration models to support asset management

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posted on 2023-12-07, 17:48 authored by PR Helm, A Svalova, AM Morsy, M Rouainia, Alister SmithAlister Smith, Ashraf El-HamalawiAshraf El-Hamalawi, DJ Wilkinson, H Postill, S Glendinning

The deterioration of transport infrastructure earthworks is a global problem, with negative impacts for infrastructure resilience, becoming of increasing significance as existing infrastructure ages. Key mechanisms which affect this deterioration include seasonal pore pressure cycling driven by changing weather and climate, and the long-term dissipation of construction induced excess pore pressures. These complex processes lead to significant uncertainty in rates of deterioration and the current state of existing earthworks assets. The objective in this work was to establish a framework to emulate deterministic numerical models of slope deterioration over time using statistical (Gaussian process) emulation. A validated, physically based, deterministic modeling capability has been developed that can replicate the hydro-mechanically coupled behavior of cut and embankment slopes and their deterioration as driven by weather and climate. In parallel, a statistical (Gaussian process) emulator model was developed, and then trained with data from a deterministic modeling parametric study, using a formal experimental design approach, making use of Latin hypercube sampling. Exemplar forecasting outputs are presented to demonstrate application of the approach for use in decision-making. This information can be used in the design of new earthworks and the management of existing earthwork portfolios.

Funding

Assessment, Costing and enHancement of long lIfe, Long Linear assEtS (ACHILLES)

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [grant number GR/R72341/01]

Long-term performance of geotechnical transport infrastructure

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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ISMART

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

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Philip Leverhulme Prize in Engineering [grant number PLP-2019-017]

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [grant number GR/S87430/01]

History

School

  • Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering

Published in

Transportation Geotechnics

Volume

44

Publisher

Elsevier

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The Author(s)

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Elsevier under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Acceptance date

2023-11-18

Publication date

2023-11-23

Copyright date

2023

eISSN

2214-3912

Language

  • en

Depositor

Dr Alister Smith. Deposit date: 27 November 2023

Article number

101155

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