Emulating long-term weather-driven transportation earthworks deterioration models to support asset management
The deterioration of transport infrastructure earthworks is a global problem, with negative impacts for infrastructure resilience, becoming of increasing significance as existing infrastructure ages. Key mechanisms which affect this deterioration include seasonal pore pressure cycling driven by changing weather and climate, and the long-term dissipation of construction induced excess pore pressures. These complex processes lead to significant uncertainty in rates of deterioration and the current state of existing earthworks assets. The objective in this work was to establish a framework to emulate deterministic numerical models of slope deterioration over time using statistical (Gaussian process) emulation. A validated, physically based, deterministic modeling capability has been developed that can replicate the hydro-mechanically coupled behavior of cut and embankment slopes and their deterioration as driven by weather and climate. In parallel, a statistical (Gaussian process) emulator model was developed, and then trained with data from a deterministic modeling parametric study, using a formal experimental design approach, making use of Latin hypercube sampling. Exemplar forecasting outputs are presented to demonstrate application of the approach for use in decision-making. This information can be used in the design of new earthworks and the management of existing earthwork portfolios.
Funding
Assessment, Costing and enHancement of long lIfe, Long Linear assEtS (ACHILLES)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Find out more...Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [grant number GR/R72341/01]
Long-term performance of geotechnical transport infrastructure
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Find out more...Philip Leverhulme Prize in Engineering [grant number PLP-2019-017]
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [grant number GR/S87430/01]
History
School
- Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering
Published in
Transportation GeotechnicsVolume
44Publisher
ElsevierVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Rights holder
© The Author(s)Publisher statement
This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Elsevier under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Acceptance date
2023-11-18Publication date
2023-11-23Copyright date
2023eISSN
2214-3912Publisher version
Language
- en