Estimating trip generation of the elderly and disabled: an analysis of London data

The aging of populations has implications for trip-making behaviour and the demand for special transport services. The London Area Travel Survey 2001 is analysed to establish the trip-making characteristics of elderly and disabled people. Ordinal probit models are fitted for all trips and trips by four purposes (work, shopping, personal business and recreational), taking daily trip frequency as the latent variable. A loglinear model is used to analyse trip length. A distinction must be made between the young disabled, the younger elderly and the older elderly. Retired people initially tend to make more trips, but as they get older and disabilities intervene, trip-making tails off. Household structure, income, car ownership, possession of a drivers license, difficulty walking and other disabilities are found to affect trip frequency and length to a greater or lesser extent.