2020EF001614.pdf (7.07 MB)
Flood risks in sinking delta cities: time for a reevaluation?
journal contribution
posted on 2020-07-24, 13:00 authored by Jie Yin, Sebastiaan Jonkman, Ning Lin, Dapeng YuDapeng Yu, Jeroen Aerts, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby, Ming Pan, Eric Wood, Jeremy Bricker, Qian Ke, Zhenzhong Zeng, Qing Zhao, Jianzhong Ge, Jun WangSea level rise (SLR) and subsidence are expected to increase the risk of flooding and reliance on flood defenses for cities built on deltas. Here, we combine reliability analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effect of projected relative SLR on dike failures and flood hazards for Shanghai, one of the most exposed delta cities. We find that flood inundation is likely to occur in low‐lying and poorly protected periurban/rural areas of the city even under the present‐day sea level. However, without adaptation measures, the risk increases by a factor of 3–160 across the densely populated floodplain under projected SLR to 2100. Impacts of frequent flood events are predicted to be more affected by SLR than those with longer return periods. Our results imply that including reliability‐based dike failures in flood simulations enables more credible flood risk assessment for global delta cities where conventional methods have assumed either overtopping only or complete failure.
Funding
National Key Research and Development Program of China. Grant Numbers: 2018YFC1508803, 2017YFE0100700, 2017YFE0107400
National Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Numbers: 41871164, 51761135024
National Social Science Fund of China. Grant Number: 18ZDA105
Research Projects of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality. Grant Numbers: 19DZ1201500, 18ZR1410800
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. Grant Numbers: 2018ECNU‐QKT001, 2017ECNUKXK013
Institute of Eco‐Chongming. Grant Number: ECNU-IEC‐202001
National Science Foundation of the United States. Grant Number: EAR‐1520683
UK Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Numbers: NE/R009600/1, NE/S017186/1
Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). Grant Number: ALWSD.2016.007
History
School
- Social Sciences and Humanities
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
Earth's FutureVolume
8Issue
8Publisher
WileyVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Rights holder
© The AuthorsPublisher statement
This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Wiley under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Acceptance date
2020-07-22Publication date
2020-08-03Copyright date
2020ISSN
2328-4277Publisher version
Language
- en