Huang Fildes Soopramanien 2019 MANUSCRIPT accepted version.pdf (717.21 kB)
Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change
journal contribution
posted on 2019-08-02, 10:33 authored by Tao Huang, Robert Fildes, Didier SoopramanienGrocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Business
Published in
European Journal of Operational ResearchVolume
279Issue
2Pages
459 - 470Publisher
Elsevier B.V.Version
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Rights holder
© Elsevier B.V.Publisher statement
This paper was accepted for publication in the journal European Journal of Operational Research and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011.Acceptance date
2019-06-04Publication date
2019-06-10Copyright date
2019ISSN
0377-2217Language
- en