Huang Fildes Soopramanien 2019 MANUSCRIPT accepted version.pdf (717.21 kB)
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Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change

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journal contribution
posted on 02.08.2019, 10:33 authored by Tao Huang, Robert Fildes, Didier Soopramanien
Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Business

Published in

European Journal of Operational Research

Volume

279

Issue

2

Pages

459 - 470

Publisher

Elsevier B.V.

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© Elsevier B.V.

Publisher statement

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal European Journal of Operational Research and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011.

Acceptance date

04/06/2019

Publication date

2019-06-10

Copyright date

2019

ISSN

0377-2217

Language

en

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Categories

Exports