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Forecasting self employment in the UK

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journal contribution
posted on 19.03.2015, 14:05 by George Saridakis, Grammatoula PapaioannouGrammatoula Papaioannou
In this paper we forecast UK self-employment, using annual data for five decades. We use the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methodology to produce a forecast three periods into the future (2014-2016). We also express the ARMA model as a state space model and estimate one-step predictions and dynamic forecasts for the same period. We then compare the univariate forecasts with multivariate multi-step ahead forecasts using a vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology. Comparing the multivariate forecasts with the univariate forecasts, we observe that both point to an increase in UK enterprise activity in the future, with the increase being sharper in the former.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Business

Published in

The Empirical Economics Letters

Volume

13

Issue

9

Pages

923 - 930

Citation

SARIDAKIS, G. and PAPAIOANNOU, G., 2014. Forecasting self employment in the UK. The Empirical Economics Letters, 13 (9), pp. 923 - 930.

Publisher

Empirical Economics Letters

Version

SMUR (Submitted Manuscript Under Review)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2014

Notes

This article was published in Empirical Economics Letters and is available here with the kind permission of the publisher.

ISSN

1681-8997

Language

en

Editor(s)

Wadud, M.A.

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