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Download fileGeopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data
journal contribution
posted on 2019-03-15, 10:04 authored by Matthew W. Clance, Rangan Gupta, Mark WoharThis paper uses a panel of 17 advanced countries over the annual period of 1899–2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors based on a logit model, we find that while aggregate geopolitical risks do not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhance the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Business
Published in
Applied Economics LettersCitation
CLANCE, M.W., GUPTA, R. and WOHAR, M.E., 2018. Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data. Applied Economics Letters, 26 (16), pp.1317-1321.Publisher
© Taylor & Francis (Routledge)Version
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publisher statement
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Economics Letters on 15 December 2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13504851.2018.1558332.Publication date
2018-12-15ISSN
1350-4851eISSN
1466-4291Publisher version
Language
- en