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Guidelines for studying diverse types of compound weather and climate events

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posted on 2021-10-26, 09:11 authored by Emanuele Bevacqua, Carlo De Michele, Colin Manning, Anaïs Couasnon, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Alexandre M. Ramos, Edoardo Vignotto, Ana Bastos, Suzana Blesić, Fabrizio Durante, John HillierJohn Hillier, Sergio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Elisa Ragno, Pauline Rivoire, Kate Saunders, Karin van der Wiel, Wenyan Wu, Tianyi Zhang, Jakob Zscheischler
Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (1) preconditioned, (2) multivariate, (3) temporally compounding, and (4) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (1) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (2) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (3) In Portugal, deep-landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (4) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.

Funding

European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003469

European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109)

Swiss National Science Foundation (Ambizione grant 179876)

Helmholtz Initiative and Networking Fund (Young Investigator Group COMPOUNDX; grant agreement no. VH-NG-1537).

Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (VIDI grant no. 016.161.324)

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT) through the project WEx-Atlantic (PTDC/CTA-MET/29233/2017)

Scientific Employment Stimulus 2017 (CEECIND/00027/2017)

Italian Ministry of University and Research (Ministero dell’Università e della Ricerca) for the support through the PRIN2017 RELAID project

European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 707404).

AXA Research Fund for support (https://axa-research.org/en/project/joaquim-pinto

Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the framework of the project BeSafeSlide — Landslide Early Warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017)

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Earth's Future

Volume

9

Issue

11

Publisher

Wiley

Version

  • VoR (Version of Record)

Rights holder

© The authors

Publisher statement

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Wiley under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC). Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Acceptance date

2021-10-25

Publication date

2021-11-10

Copyright date

2021

ISSN

2328-4277

Language

  • en

Depositor

Dr John Hillier. Deposit date: 25 October 2021

Article number

e2021EF002340