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Download fileHarmonized evaluation of daily precipitation downscaled using SDSM and WRF+WRFDA models over the Iberian Peninsula
journal contribution
posted on 2019-02-12, 14:29 authored by Santos Jose Gonzalez-Roji, Robert WilbyRobert Wilby, Jon Saenz, Gabriel Ibarra-BerastegiThere have been numerous statistical and dynamical downscaling model comparisons. However, differences in model skill
can be distorted by inconsistencies in experimental set-up, inputs and output format. This paper harmonizes such factors
when evaluating daily precipitation downscaled over the Iberian Peninsula by the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)
and two configurations of the dynamical Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (one with data assimilation (D)
and one without (N)). The ERA-Interim reanalysis at 0.75◦
resolution provides common inputs for spinning-up and driving
the WRF model and calibrating SDSM. WRF runs and SDSM output were evaluated against ECA&D stations, TRMM, GPCP
and EOBS gridded precipitation for 2010–2014 using the same suite of diagnostics. Differences between WRF and SDSM
are comparable to observational uncertainty, but the relative skill of the downscaling techniques varies with diagnostic. The
SDSM ensemble mean, WRF-D and ERAI have similar correlation scores (r = 0.45–0.7), but there were large variations
amongst SDSM ensemble members (r = 0.3–0.6). The best Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS = 0.001–0.007) and
simulations of precipitation amount were achieved by individual members of the SDSM ensemble. However, the Brier Skill
Score shows these members do not improve the prediction by ERA-Interim, whereas precipitation occurrence is reproduced
best by WRF-D. Similar skill was achieved by SDSM when applied to station or gridded precipitation data. Given the greater
computational demands of WRF compared with SDSM, clear statements of expected value-added are needed when applying
the former to climate impacts and adaptation research.
Funding
This work was supported by Grants (CGL2013- 45198-C2-1-R and CGL2016-76561-R, MINECO/ERDF, UE). S.J.G.R. was supported by a FPI Postdoctoral Research Grant (MINECO, BES-2014-069977). Additional funding was received from the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU, GIU 17/002).
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
Climate DynamicsCitation
GONZALEZ-ROJI, S.J. ... et al., 2019. Harmonized evaluation of daily precipitation downscaled using SDSM and WRF+WRFDA models over the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Dynamics, 53 (3-4), pp.1413–1433.Publisher
© the Authors. Published by Springer VerlagVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/Acceptance date
2019-02-05Publication date
2019-02-12Notes
This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Springer under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ISSN
0930-7575eISSN
1432-0894Publisher version
Language
- en