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Has the current account broken up with its fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe?

journal contribution
posted on 21.12.2020, 11:08 by Simeon Coleman, Juan Carlos Cuestas
Substantial capital outflows across Europe following the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis and 2010 European Sovereign Debt crisis, raise concerns regarding potential capital outflows from the economies of Central and Eastern European countries. To shed light on country-level factors that can mitigate crisis and potential capital outflows across these countries, this paper investigates which factors have influenced the evolution of their current accounts. Our analyses, using dynamic ordinary least squares, suggest that the long-run determinants of the current account have indeed changed over time, and threshold cointegrated estimates also confirm that, for each country, the parameters are dependent on thresholds for certain variables and there is significant heterogeneity across the countries. Our overall results are robust to complementary analyses, such as Threshold Estimation approach. We comment on some possible implications of these differences.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Economics

Published in

International Journal of Finance and Economics

Publisher

Wiley

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [FULL CITE], which has been published in final form at [Link to final article using the DOI]. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.

Acceptance date

20/12/2020

ISSN

1076-9307

eISSN

1099-1158

Language

en

Depositor

Dr Simeon Coleman. Deposit date: 20 December 2020

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