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Hazard assessment for typhoon‐induced coastal flooding and inundation in Shanghai, China

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journal contribution
posted on 20.09.2021, 10:47 by Jie Yin, Ning Lin, Yuhan Yang, William J Pringle, Jinkai Tan, Joannes J Westerink, Dapeng YuDapeng Yu
This paper describes an integrated climatological-hydrodynamic method that couples probabilistic hurricane model, storm surge model, inundation model, coastal protection data, and sea level rise projections to estimate tropical cyclone-induced coastal flood inundation hazard in a coastal megacity-Shanghai, China. We identify three “worst-case” scenarios (extracted from over 5,000 synthetic storms) that generate unprecedentedly high flood levels in Shanghai. Nevertheless, we find that the mainland Shanghai is relatively safe from coastal flooding under the current climate, thanks to its high-standard seawall protection. However, the city is expected to be increasingly at risk due to future sea level rise, with inundation two times and 20 times more likely to occur by mid- and late-21st century, respectively, and inundation depth and area to greatly increase (e.g., 60%–1,360% increase in the inundation area for the “worst cases” by 2,100). The low-lying and poorly protected area (e.g., Chongming Island) is likely to be moderately affected by flood events with long return periods at the current state but could be largely inundated in future sea-level-rise situations.

Funding

National Key Research and Development Program of China Stem Cell and Translational Research. Grant Number: 2018YFC1508803, 2017YFE0107400, 2017YFE0100700

National Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Number: 41871164, 51761135024

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. Grant Number: 2018ECNU-QKT001, 2017ECNUKXK013

Institute of Eco-Chongming. Grant Number: ECNU-IEC-202001

National Science Foundation. Grant Number: EAR-1520683

History

School

  • Social Sciences and Humanities

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

Volume

126

Issue

7

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Rights holder

© American Geophysical Union

Publisher statement

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2021 American Geophysical Union.

Acceptance date

07/07/2021

Publication date

2021-07-20

Copyright date

2021

ISSN

2169-9275

eISSN

2169-9291

Language

en

Depositor

Prof Dapeng Yu . Deposit date: 16 September 2021

Article number

e2021JC017319