Household income trajectories, PROGRESAOportunidades, and child well-being at pre-school age in rural Mexico

This study examines the extent to which household income around the time of birth and income trajectory, influenced by the conditional cash transfer programme PROGRESA-Oportunidades, are associated with the physiological, cognitive, motor, and emotional well-being of pre-school children in rural Mexico. Using the ENCASEH/ENCEL, Structural Equation Models are developed to explore the association between household income over the course of the child’s life, taking part in the cash transfer programme, and indicators of well-being at 4–6 years of age. Results indicate that household income around the time of birth is positively associated with child outcomes at 4–6 years of age. This reinforces the evidence that early poverty has a scarring effect on children’s capabilities. Results also show that improving income trajectories were found to be positively associated with better child development, and PROGRESA-Oportunidades had an indirect positive impact on children the 5- and 4-year-old groups by influencing the income trajectories of their households.